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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still