Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
