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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.