Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
